Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3045
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
F9 3045 · ATL → MSP
departs 7:05 AM ET · arrives 8:51 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14 16%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 16%
Sat 10/17 18%
Sun 10/18 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.