Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3862
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
F9 3862 · SLC → DEN
departs 7:46 AM MT · arrives 9:24 AM MT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/13 22%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 22%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 14%
Sun 10/18 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.4 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.10 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.4 mi Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.