Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5039 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

OH 5039 · GRR → DCA

departs 1:55 PM ET · arrives 3:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 52h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

GRR (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.10 in

DCA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5039 · GRR → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?