Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5148 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

OH 5148 · DCA → MGM

departs 4:17 PM ET · arrives 5:36 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at MGM more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MGM?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MGM

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MGM (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5148 · DCA → MGM

Odds over time

How late will it get to MGM?