Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3981
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
OO 3981 · ATW → MSP
departs 5:37 PM CT · arrives 6:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 20%
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 17%
Sun 10/18 19%
Mon 10/19 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ATW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
ATW is prone to delays
↓
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at ATW that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP
Weather at each end
ATW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.