Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3981
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
OO 3981 · ATW → MSP
departs 5:38 PM CT · arrives 6:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 20%
Sat 10/17 17%
Sun 10/18 19%
Mon 10/19 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ATW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at ATW that day
↑
Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at MSP that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ATW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.12 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.