Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1418 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 14

UA 1418 · DEN → MIA

departs 9:40 AM MT · arrives 3:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 50h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.43 in

MIA (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1418 · DEN → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?