Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1418 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 1418 · DEN → MIA

departs 9:42 AM MT · arrives 3:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±5 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts34 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precip0.27 in

MIA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1418 · DEN → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?