Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4247
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
WN 4247 · DAL → MCO
departs 2:56 PM CT · arrives 6:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 25%
Sat 10/17 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
2pm departures from DAL are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.