Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4247
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 4247 · DAL → MCO
departs 2:33 PM CT · arrives 6:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 25%
Sat 10/17 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
MCO usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.