Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4387
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14 Tomorrow
YX 4387 · DTW → DCA
departs 5:14 PM ET · arrives 7:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 19%
Fri 10/16 22%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
5pm departures from DTW are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.