Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4387
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
YX 4387 · DTW → DCA
departs 5:13 PM ET · arrives 7:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Wed 10/14 14%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 22%
Sun 10/18 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
5pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at DTW that day
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.16 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.