Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 7, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5807
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 14
YX 5807 · BOS → CLT
departs 7:40 PM ET · arrives 10:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Tue 10/13 46%
Wed 10/14
Thu 10/15 24%
Fri 10/16 33%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
BOS is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.08 in
CLT (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.