Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1521 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

AA 1521 · DCA → CLT

departs 6:17 AM ET · arrives 7:56 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1521 · DCA → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?