Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1502
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
DL 1502 · MSP → BOS
departs 6:10 PM CT · arrives 10:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Wed 10/14 18%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 37%
Sun 10/18 22%
Mon 10/19 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from MSP are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.05 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.