Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1724
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
DL 1724 · BOS → ORD
departs 4:26 PM ET · arrives 6:16 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Tue 10/13 46%
Wed 10/14 50%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 47%
Sun 10/18 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
65%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
65%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
26%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
4pm departures from BOS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.50 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.