Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1943
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
DL 1943 · MIA → DCA
departs 11:21 AM ET · arrives 1:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14 13%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 24%
Sat 10/17 19%
Sun 10/18 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
MIA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
11am departures from MIA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.