Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5630 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

OH 5630 · ROC → CLT

departs 11:49 AM ET · arrives 1:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from ROC are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5630 · ROC → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?