Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5653
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
OO 5653 · ORD → FAR
departs 8:41 AM CT · arrives 10:43 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Tue 10/13 27%
Wed 10/14 28%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 19%
Sat 10/17 20%
Sun 10/18 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAR more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at FAR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAR?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
FAR usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.40 in
FAR (destination)
Gusts 35 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.