Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 17, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 9781 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 24 Today

AA 9781 · VQQ → MIA

departs 4:19 PM ET · arrives 5:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 8:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ 4pm departures from VQQ are usually not late

Weather at each end

VQQ (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 9781 · VQQ → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?