Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AEROMÉXICO CONNECT · FLIGHT 5D 423
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
5D 423 · MIA → MEX
departs 2:05 PM ET · arrives 3:28 PM CST
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MEX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to MEX?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 36 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
2pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.56 in
MEX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.