9E 5063 · MSP → RIC

took off 1:00 PM CT · landed 4:01 PM ET (scheduled 12:46 PM CT → 4:20 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RIC?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Arrivals into RIC at that hour are often late

↑ MSP is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.44 in

RIC (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5063 · MSP → RIC

Odds over time

How late did it get to RIC?