AA 1446 · MIA → EWR

took off 2:36 PM ET · landed 5:09 PM ET (scheduled 2:16 PM ET → 5:28 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to EWR?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 36 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 2pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.56 in

EWR (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1446 · MIA → EWR

Odds over time

How late did it get to EWR?