AA 309 · MIA → MGA

took off 11:19 AM ET · landed 11:27 AM CST (scheduled 11:03 AM ET → 11:46 AM CST)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at MGA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 39 kt, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 11am departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into MGA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.56 in

MGA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 309 · MIA → MGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to MGA?