Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 962 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

AS 962 · LAX → OGG

departs 10:08 AM PT · arrives 12:43 PM HT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ 10am departures from LAX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OGG (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 962 · LAX → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?