Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4818
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
C5 4818 · IAD → CAE
departs 8:14 AM ET · arrives 9:46 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 14%
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 17%
Sat 10/31 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at CAE more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at CAE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CAE?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
C5's recent on-time record
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Arrivals into CAE at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
CAE (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.