Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

CHINA AIRLINES · FLIGHT CI 5381 LANDED 2:32 AM PT, ~17 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

CI 5381 · MIA → SEA

took off 11:57 PM ET · landed 2:32 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 23h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.56 in

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CI 5381 · MIA → SEA

Odds over time