Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
CATHAY PACIFIC · FLIGHT CX 853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Today
CX 853 · SEA → HKG
departs 12:06 PM PT · arrives 4:26 PM HKT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 14%
Wed 10/28 12%
Thu 10/29 15%
Sat 10/31 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at HKG more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at HKG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at HKG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HKG?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
12pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
HKG usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into HKG at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
HKG (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.