Schedule: FAA flight plans.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 786 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

DL 786 · DCA → SEA

took off 4:51 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 4:35 PM ET → 7:41 PM PT)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ 4pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility4 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 786 · DCA → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?