Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AER LINGUS · FLIGHT EI 989 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

EI 989 · DUB → MSP

departs 2:25 PM GMT · arrives 6:13 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DUB

Weather at each end

DUB (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

MSP (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

EI 989 · DUB → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?