Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2471
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
F9 2471 · EWR → DFW
departs 1:35 PM ET · arrives 4:27 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 26%
Wed 10/28 14%
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30 43%
Sat 10/31 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.