F9 4003 · BWI → MCO

took off · landed 11:35 PM ET (scheduled 9:38 PM ET → 12:09 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MCO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ 9pm departures from BWI are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4003 · BWI → MCO

Odds over time

How late did it get to MCO?