Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4275
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
F9 4275 · MSP → PHX
departs 11:58 AM CT · arrives 1:29 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MSP that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSP (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.44 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.