F9 4646 · DEN → MCO

took off 6:45 AM MT · landed 11:54 AM ET (scheduled 6:34 AM MT → 12:22 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MCO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi forecast at DEN that day

↑ Gusts to 33 kt forecast at MCO that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from DEN are usually not late

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.37 in

MCO (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4646 · DEN → MCO

Odds over time

How late did it get to MCO?