F9 4712 · ATL → BWI

took off 1:09 AM ET · landed 2:28 AM ET (scheduled 10:42 PM ET → 12:59 AM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BWI?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 50% of the time recently

↑ 10pm departures from ATL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4712 · ATL → BWI

Odds over time

How late did it get to BWI?