Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
IBERIA · FLIGHT IB 351
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
IB 351 · MAD → LAX
departs 1:00 PM CET · arrives 5:08 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 10%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sun 11/1 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MAD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
MAD (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
LAX (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.