Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
LH 404 · FRA → JFK
departs 5:15 PM CET · arrives 9:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 19%
Wed 10/28 15%
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30 43%
Sat 10/31 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA
Weather at each end
FRA (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
JFK (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.