LH 415 · IAD → MUC

took off 11:56 PM ET · landed 12:15 PM CET (scheduled 12:06 AM ET → 12:57 PM CET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 23h after departure

Arrive at MUC more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MUC?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ IAD is busy at that time

↑ Other factors

↓ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at IAD that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MUC

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

MUC (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LH 415 · IAD → MUC

Odds over time

How late did it get to MUC?