Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
LUFTHANSA · FLIGHT LH 438
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
LH 438 · FRA → DFW
departs 10:15 AM CET · arrives 2:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 18h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 11%
Thu 10/29 35%
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
6%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave FRA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FRA
Weather at each end
FRA (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
DFW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.