MQ 4023 · DCA → SDF

took off 4:22 PM ET · landed 5:43 PM ET (scheduled 3:30 PM ET → 5:16 PM ET)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SDF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility4 mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4023 · DCA → SDF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SDF?