Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 9766
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
MQ 9766 · TUL → DCA
departs 9:21 AM CT · arrives 1:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 13h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Wed 10/28 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.