Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 9767
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
MQ 9767 · DCA → DFW
departs 2:11 PM ET · arrives 4:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.