Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR NEW ZEALAND · FLIGHT NZ 8 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

NZ 8 · AKL → SFO

departs 7:50 PM NZDT · arrives 12:09 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 20h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
8%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AKL

Weather at each end

AKL (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SFO (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

NZ 8 · AKL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?