Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5566
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
OO 5566 · SFO → FAT
departs 10:30 AM PT · arrives 11:49 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 32%
Wed 10/28 24%
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30 34%
Sat 10/31 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from SFO are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FAT
↓
Arrivals into FAT at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FAT (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.