Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PORTER · FLIGHT PD 2720
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
PD 2720 · IAD → YTZ
departs 11:15 AM ET · arrives 1:19 PM EDT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 8%
Thu 10/29 8%
Fri 10/30 7%
Sat 10/31 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YTZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at YTZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to YTZ?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
YTZ (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.