Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA JAZZ · FLIGHT QK 719 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

QK 719 · YYZ → MSP

departs 2:00 PM EDT · arrives 3:05 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSP?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↑ 2pm departures from YYZ are often late

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

MSP (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QK 719 · YYZ → MSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSP?