Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Today
QX 2004 · SEA → YVR
departs 10:08 AM PT · arrives 11:14 AM PDT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 15%
Wed 10/28 15%
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at YVR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to YVR?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from SEA are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
YVR usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into YVR at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
YVR (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.