Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2013
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Today
QX 2013 · YVR → SEA
departs 11:50 AM PDT · arrives 12:50 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 20%
Wed 10/28 17%
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave YVR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at SEA that day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at YVR
↑
Other factors
↓
YVR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
YVR (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
SEA (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.