Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SUN COUNTRY · FLIGHT SY 599 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

SY 599 · MSP → AZA

departs 2:39 PM CT · arrives 4:01 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at AZA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to AZA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ 2pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ AZA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AZA

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.44 in

AZA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 599 · MSP → AZA

Odds over time

How late will it get to AZA?