Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 201 LANDED 5:52 PM MT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

TK 201 · IST → DEN

took off 3:13 PM +03 · landed 5:52 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi forecast at DEN that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IST

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

IST (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

DEN (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.37 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

TK 201 · IST → DEN

Odds over time